with love to indore

Friday, January 13, 2012

fallacies


1.The circumstances under which accurate perception is most difficult are exactly the circumstances under which (policy) analysis is generally conducted–dealing with highly ambiguous situations on the basis of information that is processed incrementally under pressure for early judgment. This is a recipe for inaccurate perception.

2. There is a risk that we identify the problem inaccurately because of various pressures: for instance, there is scarcely a policy area where political, ideological, media, personal and time pressures do not affect the policy analyst and/or decision-maker.

problem of administration at DAVV?

3. Similarly, “memory” poses risks. What, why and how much one remembers are questions. Also, as shown masterfully in Akira Kurosawa’s “Rashomon”, different persons can remember different things even when it is about the same objective event.

Our approach to solve water issue is just to get more water (narmada stage 3) without worrying about costs and sustainability just because there was a struggle to get it in first place years back which succeeded

4. Memory and perception are linked to “job experience”. Given what we know about the difficulties in perception and memory, what can we say about the value of experience?

Experience with BRTS will kill all innovations in transport for near future

5. There is an inherent tension between experience as a “been there done that”/”it won’t work”, and experience as a “shoulders of giants”.
trying to copy Delhi metro or IT park of Bangalore

7. Causation vs Correlation. Just because the sun rises after the rooster crows, it doesn’t mean that the sun rises because the rooster crows. I call this the Oldest Mistake in Public Policy (OMIPP). See why correlation does not imply causation.
Economic growth and eminent position in MP has led to people from small town coming here for education. Mistaking it for Indore becoming an education hub

8. Anecdotal vs Empirical. One common fallacy is to presume what you see/observe is the general problem. For instance, a person who observes that in a particular village, poverty is linked to exploitation by absentee landlords, might conclude that poverty in all villages is due to this cause. The person might then decide to pursue an anti-poverty policy across the whole country that targets absentee landlords. This can have dangerous and disastrous consequences if rural poverty elsewhere due to other causes.

There could be places where crime is related to late night pubs (e. .) Bombay or Bangalore..Police closing shops in Indore at 10 does not make sense


9. Fallacies: ideological blinders. Often the problem is defined (as are the solutions) before the problem is perceived. A ‘villain’ is assigned and all problems assigned to him. Policy then is about attacking the villain and being engaged in a war to defeat the villain. The actual problems are incidental to this.
All ills of colleges on faulty evaluation or semester system

10. Fallacies: bureaucratic blinders. “This is the way the department has always tackled the problem. This is the right way, if only XYZ were taken care of.” This leads us to fail to question why XYZ is the cause of policy failure? If XYZ can’t be changed in reality, then does this approach make sense?

the way cooperative department is working in indore

11. Fallacies: Hope & despair. The former causes one to repeat mistakes. The latter causes one not to try new approaches.
Hopelessness with MY hospital and hope with IDA which keeps on making mistake after mistake in terms of schemes

12. Fallacies: “It’s my baby”. First, policymakers might be wedded to certain proposals or projects and want to implement them at all costs. (Corollary to this is the “not invented here” syndrome). Second, policymakers might get personally attached to the programme and prevent more competent/skilled people from managing it. Often, the skills & aptitude required for breakthrough thinking are different from those required for implementation.

BRTS, IT Park , Rajbada modernization, multi level parking , MR10

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